El Niño returns with strong outlook through 2026

El Niño has officially developed in the Pacific Ocean, marking a shift in global climate patterns and setting the stage for a potentially strong event through the end of 2026, forecasters said Thursday.

The Climate Prediction Center announced that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen more than 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, meeting the threshold for El Niño conditions.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern that influences weather worldwide. Its arrival signals the end of ENSO-neutral conditions, when ocean temperatures are closer to average.

The development follows a relatively quick transition from La Niña, the cooler phase of the cycle that dominated last fall and winter.

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say current models show strong agreement that El Niño will persist through the remainder of the year, with peak intensity expected during the late fall and early winter months.

Climate projections indicate temperature anomalies could reach or exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius above average, a level considered a “very strong” El Niño.

Such events can significantly alter weather patterns, often bringing increased rainfall to some regions while contributing to drought conditions in others. In the United States, El Niño can influence storm tracks, temperatures and seasonal precipitation patterns.

Meteorologists will closely monitor the strength of the developing event in the coming months as it evolves and begins to shape regional forecasts.

Additional outlooks and seasonal forecasts will provide more detailed guidance on how El Niño could impact specific areas across the country.

Officials encourage the public and local agencies to stay informed as the climate pattern develops and to prepare for potential shifts in weather conditions tied to the event.

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