White House links Austin home-price drops to deportations; experts push back

This week, a White House account on X linked falling property prices in Austin and other large metropolitan areas to federal mass deportation, but housing specialists and local leaders called the allegation false.

The Rapid Response 47 post noted, “In 14 of the top 20 metro areas with the largest illegal migrant populations, home list prices declined year-over-year in December,” and “Mass deportations = lower housing costs for Americans.”

The average Austin home value was $489,000 at the end of 2025, down 6.4 percent from its 2022 and early 2023 levels, according to Zillow data.

Real estate experts say the economy is more important than migration and immigration policy. Bishop Chappell, an Austin real estate salesperson, said “interest rates” and market forces, not immigration, drive home sales.

Academic research implies that immigration enforcement and housing markets are complex. According to Troup Howard, an assistant professor at the University of Utah's David Eccles School of Business, stricter immigration laws restrict homebuilding, which can put “upward supply-side pressure” on prices.

Local market analysts agreed on economic drivers. Unlock MLS research advisor Vaike O'Grady said recent Central Texas housing changes “reflect a market finding balance after an extended period of rapid growth,” due to cooling post-pandemic demand and other structural issues.

Political answers are contentious. State Rep. John Bucy, D-Austin, called the White House assertion “shocking” and slammed the article for lacking evidence. Travis County GOP communications director Andy Hogue said Austin price declines are not surprising but questioned tying them to immigration enforcement without more data.

Economists say mortgage interest rates, job patterns, inventory levels, and regional population fluctuations affect house prices. The U.S. housing market's historically high interest rates have weighed on buyer demand and led to price adjustments, economists say.

New residents and builders are moving to Austin, and the city's population expansion complicates narratives about deportation and house prices.

Nationally, White House social posts that link immigration policy to economic measures have drawn criticism from economists and political pundits, underscoring the difficulty of linking complex economic effects to a single policy action in public discourse.